Karpathy’s AI capability funnel maps four realities happening at once

Andrej Karpathy argues that the gap in shared understanding of AI capability is widening into a sharp funnel. Most people have little or casual contact with free chatbots; a much smaller group uses frontier agents on long math and code projects; and a tiny group sees internal systems. All four experiences coexist. Why it matters: Arguments that AI is disappointing and arguments that it is accelerating can both come from honest observation of different tiers. The missing context is which model, task horizon, domain, and access level produced the judgment.